Forecast of Fukushima radioactive contamination over the next 20 years

On December 16, 2011, TEPCO confirmed that the release of radioactive materials was under control and that radiation doses were being signifi­cantly reduced [5]. In April 2012, the predicted equivalent radiation doses per year for areas near the Fukushima Daiichi NPP for the next 20 years were released [20]. As shown in Plate XIII (between pages 448 and 449), a dose of more than 100 mSv/yr may still be encountered about 23 km north­west of the plant until March 2013, and the 50 mS/yr dose zone can only be confined to a 20 km radius after March 2017. Since the standard worker dose limit for Japanese workers is 50 mSv per year and 100 mSv over 5 years [21] , certain areas will still be subject to high alert for radiation effects in the near future. By March 2022 (11 years after the accident), certain hot spots may still possess a radiation dose higher than 50 mS/yr. These hot spots will mostly be eliminated after 20 years, as shown in the prediction for March 2032 in Plate XIII.

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