FUTURE GLOBAL POWER REQUIREMENTS

The demand for energy is closely driven by economic growth. There are, therefore, significant differences across the global sectors. Data provided in Energy Visions 2030 for Finland (2003) show the emergence of countries such as Asia with large developing economies where the regional share of worldwide energy was 25% in 1981 but rising to 37% by 2005. Growth rates in Asia have been higher than other sectors since 1993, at about 4.8% between 1993 and 2000 and forecasted to exceed 4.5% between 2000 and 2005.

International Energy Agency (IEA) data forecast an average global annual growth rate of 3% over the next 20 years. This equates to about a 57% growth of primary energy requirement over this period. The main increase in demand will come from the developing

Table 17.1. Percentage of EU total energy consumption

Fuel

2000 (%)

2030 (%)

Oil

41

38

Gas

22

29

Coal

16

19

Nuclear

15

6

Renewables

6

8

Data from EC Green Paper (2000) and European Energy Strategy (2001).

countries. This demand is likely to be met from their indigenous resources of fossil fuels together with additional imported energy resource to meet demand. The fossil fuel share could be as high as 90% by 2020 unless this additional resource can be supplied by other means, e. g. nuclear, hydropower or possibly renewables.

Another forecast for the EU is little different (EC Green Paper, 2000; European Energy Strategy, 2001). The distribution of total energy consumption across the EU for the various sources is shown in Table 17.1. To meet this demand, Europe currently imports about 50% of its requirement, and this would rise to 70% in 2030 if current trends continue. Without new build of nuclear plants, the nuclear component would drop from 15 to about 6% in 2030, the European energy sector would become much less autonomous and without a significant increase in renewable energy, carbon dioxide emissions and global warming would increase.

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